Articles

  • Engst, Benjamin G., Thomas Gschwend, Nils Schaks, Sebastian Sternberg, and Caroline Wittig. 2017. "Zum Einfluss der Parteinähe auf das Abstimmungsverhalten der Bundesverfassungsrichter - eine quantitative Untersuchung." JuristenZeitung 72(17): 816-826. PDF, replication data
  • Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend. 2017. "Chancellor Model Predicts a Change of the Guards." PS: Political Science & Politics 50(3): 686-688. PDF
  • Gschwend, Thomas, Michael F. Meffert, and Lukas F. Stötzer. 2017. "Weighting Parties and Coalitions: How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior." The Journal of Politics 79(2): 642-655. PDF, appendix, replication data set
  • Gschwend, Thomas, Lukas Stötzer, and Steffen Zittlau. 2016. "What drives rental votes? How coalitions signals facilitate strategic coalition voting." Electoral Studies 44(December) 2016: 293-306. PDF, appendix, replication data set
  • Sternberg, Sebastian, Thomas Gschwend, Caroline Wittig, and Benjamin G. Engst. 2015. "Zum Einfluss der öffentlichen Meinung auf Entscheidungen des Bundesverfassungsgerichts. Eine Analyse von abstrakten Normenkontrollen sowie Bund-Länder-Streitigkeiten 1974-2010." Politische Vierteljahresschrift 56(4): 570-598. PDF, replication data set
  • Gschwend, Thomas, and Thomas Zittel. 2015. "Do constituency candidates matter in German Federal Elections? The personal vote as an interactive process." Electoral Studies, 39: 338-349. PDF, replication data set
  • Stötzer, Lukas, Steffen Zittlau, Thomas Gschwend, and Tobias Witt. 2015. "Leihstimmen im Bundestagswahljahr 2013." Journal of Political Psychology, 4(1): 88-107. PDF
  • Lo, James, Sven-Oliver Proksch, and Thomas Gschwend. 2014. "A Common Left-Right Scale for Voters and Parties in Europe." Political Analysis, 22(2): 205-223. PDF, replication data
  • Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend. 2013. "Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election." Political Science & Politics, 46 (3): 481-482. PDF
  • Meffert, Michael F., Sascha Huber, Thomas Gschwend, and Franz Urban Pappi. 2011. "More than wishful thinking: Causes and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations about parties and coalitions." Electoral Studies, 30(4): 804-815. PDF
  • Gschwend, Thomas und Thomas Zittel. 2011. "Machen Wahlkreiskandidaten einen Unterschied? Die Persönlichkeitswahl als interaktiver Prozess." Politische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderheft, 45:371-392. PDF
  • Bytzek, Evelyn, Thomas Gschwend, Sascha Huber, Eric Linhart und Michael F. Meffert. 2011. "Koalitionssignale und ihre Wirkungen auf Wahlentscheidungen." Politische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderheft , 45: 393-418. PDF
  • Meffert, Michael F., and Thomas Gschwend. 2011. "Polls, coalition signals and strategic voting: An experimental investigation of perceptions and effects." European Journal of Political Research 50(5): 636–667. online appendix, PDF
  • Meffert, Michael F., and Thomas Gschwend. 2010. "Strategic Coalition Voting: Evidence from Austria." Electoral Studies 29(3): 339-349. PDF
  • Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend. 2010. "The chancellor model: Forecasting German elections." International Journal of Forecasting 26(1): 42–53. PDF
  • Hoennige, Christoph, and Thomas Gschwend. 2010. "Das Bundesverfassungsgericht im politischen System der BRD – ein unbekanntes Wesen?" Politische Vierteljahresschrift. 51(3): 507-530. PDF
  • Bräuninger, Thomas, Thomas Gschwend, and Susumu Shikano. 2010. "Sachpolitik oder Parteipolitik? Eine Bestimmung des Parteidrucks im Bundesrat mittels bayesianischer Methoden.[Policy or Partisanship? Analyzing Party Pressure in the German Bundesrat Using Bayesian Methods].” Politische Vierteljahresschrift: 51(2):223–249. PDF
  • Gschwend. 2009. "Sind Umfragen das Allheilmittel zur Begleitung politischer Kampagnen?" Zeitschrift für Politikberatung" 2(2): 560-561. PDF
  • Elff, Martin, Thomas Gschwend, and Ron Johnston. 2008. “Ignoramus, Ignorabimus? On Uncertainty in Ecological Inference.” Political Analysis 16(1), 70-92. web appendix, replication data set, PDF
  • Gschwend, Thomas, and Marc Hooghe. 2008. “Should I Stay or Should I Go? An Experimental Study on Voter Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions.” European Journal of Political Research 47(5), 556-577. PDF, replication data
  • Zittel, Thomas and Thomas Gschwend. 2008. "Individualized Constituency Campaigns in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. Candidates in the German Parliamentary Elections in 2005." West European Politics 31(5): 978-1003. PDF, replication data
  • Lavine, Howard, and Thomas Gschwend. 2007. “Issues, Party and Character: The Moderating Role of Ideological Thinking on Candidate Evaluation.” British Journal of Political Science 37(1): 139-163. PDF
  • Gschwend, Thomas. 2007. “Ticket-Splitting and Strategic Voting under Mixed Electoral Rules: Evidence from Germany.” European Journal of Political Research 46(1): 1–23. PDF, replication data
  • Zittel, Thomas, and Thomas Gschwend. 2007. „Individualisierte Wahlkämpfe im Wahlkreis. Eine Analyse am Beispiel des Bundestagswahlkampfes von 2005 [Individualized Constituency Campaigns in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Case of the German Parliamentary Elections in 2005].“ Politische Vierteljahresschrift 48(2): 293–321. [Nominated for Fritz-Thyssen Award 2008]. PDF, replication data
  • Gschwend, Thomas. 2007. “Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahlen 1979 bis 2001: keine Testwahlen für den Bund [Berlin State Elections 1979 – 2001. No Test for the National Level].“ Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 38(3): 531-540. PDF, replication data
  • Gschwend, Thomas. 2007. “Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting and Party System Change in Portugal.” Portuguese Journal of Social Science 6(1): 15-31. PDF, replication data
  • Gschwend, Thomas, and Henk van der Kolk. 2006. “Split Ticket Voting in Mixed Member Proportional Systems: The Hypothetical Case of The Netherlands.“ Acta Politica 41(2): 163-179. PDF
  • Wüst, Andreas M., Hermann Schmitt, Thomas Gschwend, and Thomas Zittel. 2006. “Candidates in the 2005 Bundestag Election: Mode of Candidacy, Campaigning and Issues.” German Politics 15(4): 419-437. PDF
  • Broscheid, Andreas, and Thomas Gschwend. 2005. “Zur statistischen Analyse von Vollerhebungen [On the Statistical Analysis of Superpopulations].“ Politische Vierteljahresschrift 46(1): O-16 – O-26. PDF
  • Gschwend, Thomas. 2005. “Analyzing Quota Sample Data and the Peer-Review Process.” French Politics 3(1): 88-91. PDF
  • Gschwend, Thomas, and Dirk Leuffen. 2005. “Divided We Stand - Unified We Govern? Cohabitation and Regime Voting  in the 2002 French Elections.” British Journal of Political Science 35(4): 691-712. PDF, replication data
  • Gschwend, Thomas, and Helmut Norpoth. 2005. “Prognosemodell auf dem Prüfstand: Die Bundestagswahl 2005 [Forecasting the 2005 German Election: Test of a Model].“ Politische Vierteljahresschrift 46(4): 682-688. PDF
  • Gschwend, Thomas, Ron Johnston, and Charles Pattie. 2003. “Split-Ticket Patterns in Mixed-Member Proportional Election Systems: Estimates and Analyses of their Spatial Variation at the German Federal Election, 1998.” British Journal of Political Science 33(1): 109-127. PDF
    • Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend. 2003. “Against all Odds? The Red-Green Victory.” German Politics and Society 21(1): 15-34. PDF
     

    Books

    • Golder, Sona N., Ignacio Lago, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, and Thomas Gschwend. 2017. Multi-Level Electoral Politics. Beyond the Second-Order Election Model. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig, eds. 2007. Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft: Probleme - Strategien - Anwendungen. Frankfurt am Main: [Mannheimer Jahrbuch für Europäische Sozialforschung / Nr. 11. more information
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig. 2007 (paperback edition 2011). Research Design in Political Science. How to Practice What They Preach? Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave.
    • Behnke, Joachim, Thomas Gschwend, Delia Schindler, and Kai-Uwe Schnapp. 2006. Methoden der Politikwissenschaft: Neuere qualitative und quantitative Analyseverfahren [Political Methodology: New Qualitative and Quantitative Methods]. Baden-Baden: Nomos. more information
    • Gschwend, Thomas. 2004. Strategic Voting in Mixed-Electoral Systems. Reutlingen: SFG-Elsevier. more information (show abstract)


    Book Chapters

    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Michael F. Meffert. 2017. "Strategic Voting." In The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, eds. Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, London: Sage Publications Ltd. Pp. 339-366. PDF
    • Hooghe, Marc, Sofie Marien, and Thomas Gschwend. 2012. “Gathering Counter-Factual Evidence: An Experimental Study on Voters’ Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions.” In Experimental Political Science: Principles and Practices, eds. Bernhard Kittel, Wolfgang J. Luhan and Rebecca B. Morton, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Pp. 413-440. PDF
    • Meffert, Michael F., and Thomas Gschwend. 2012. “Experimental Triangulation of Coalition Signals: Varying Designs, Converging Results.” In Experimental Political Science: Principles and Practices, eds. Bernhard Kittel, Wolfgang J. Luhan and Rebecca B. Morton, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Pp. 140-160. PDF
    • Blais, André, and Thomas Gschwend. 2010. “Strategic Defection across Elections, Parties, and Voters.” In Citizens, Context, and Choice: How the Political Context Shapes Electoral Behavior, eds. Christopher Anderson and Russell Dalton, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Pp. 176-196. PDF
    • Huber, Sascha, Thomas Gschwend, Michael F. Meffert, and Franz Urban Pappi. 2009. "Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung." In Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2005, ed. Oscar W. Gabriel, Bernhard Weßels, Jürgen W. Falter, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Pp. 561-584. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas. 2009. “District Magnitude and the Comparative Study of Strategic Voting.” In The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, ed. Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Pp. 289-307. PDF
    • Meffert, Michael F., and Thomas Gschwend. 2009. “Strategisches Wählen in Mehrparteiensystemen: ein Gruppenexperiment [Strategic Voting in a Multiparty System: A Group-Experiment].” In Parteienwettbewerb, Wählerverhalten und Koalitionsbildung. Festschrift zum 70. Geburtstag von Franz Urban Pappi, eds. Christian Henning, Eric Linhart and Susumu Shikano, Baden-Baden: Nomos. Pp. 107-132. PDF
    • Wüst, Andreas M., Hermann Schmitt, Thomas Gschwend, and Thomas Zittel. 2008. „Candidates in the 2005 Bundestag Election: Mode of Candidacy, Campaigning and Issues.“ In The German Election of 2005, eds. Clayton Clemens and Thomas Saalfeld, New York: Routledge. Pp. 86-104. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas. 2008. “Studying Contamination Effects in Multi-Level Systems of Governance: First Thoughts about Hypotheses and Research Design.” In The Multilevel Electoral System of the EU, eds. Cees van der Eijk and Hermann Schmitt, CONNEX Report Series Nr 04, Mannheim. Pp. 229-240. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas. 2008. “Abgeordnetenhauswahlen sind keine Bundestagswahlen. Oder doch? Erfahrungsbericht aus Berlin [State Elections are no Federal Elections. Or are they? Experiences from Berlin].” In Wähler und Landtagswahlen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland [Voters and State Elections in the Federal Republic of Germany], eds. Kerstin Völkl, Kai-Uwe Schnapp, Everhard Holtmann and Oscar W. Gabriel, Baden-Baden: Nomos. Pp. 93-120. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig. 2007. „Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft: Ein Dialog zwischen Theorie und Daten [Research Design in Political Science: A Dialogue between Theory and Data].“ In Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft: Probleme-Strategien-Anwendungen, eds. Thomas Gschwend and Frank Schimmelfennig, Frankfurt/New York: Campus. Pp. 13-35. PDF
    • Zittel, Thomas, and Thomas Gschwend. 2007. „Der Bundestagswahlkampf von 2005 und Kollektive Repräsentation: Ein kurzer Auftakt zum langen Abschied? [Election Campaign of 2005 and Collective Representation].“ In Die Bundestagswahl 2005. Analysen des Wahlkampfes und der Wahlergebnisse [The Federal Election of 2005. Analysis of the Campaign and the Election Results], eds. Frank Brettschneider, Oskar Niedermayer, and Bernhard Weßels, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Pp. 119-144. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas. 2007. „Incentivos institucionais ao voto estratégico e mundança do sistema paridário em Portugal [Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting and Party System Change in Portugal].“ In Eleições e Cultura Politíca [Election and Political Culture], eds. André Freire, Marina Costa Lobo and Pedro Magalhães, Lisbon: ICS. Pp. 275-297. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig. 2007. „Lehren für den Dialog zwischen Theorie und Daten [Lessons for the Dialogue between Theory and Data].“ In Forschungsdesign in der Politikwissenschaft, eds. Thomas Gschwend and Frank Schimmelfennig, Frankfurt/New York: Campus. Pp. 323-336. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig. 2007.”Introduction: Designing Research in Political Science – A Dialogue between Theory and Data.” In Research Design in Political Science. How to Practice What They Preach, eds. Thomas Gschwend and Frank Schimmelfennig , Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan. Pp. 1-18. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Frank Schimmelfennig. 2007. “Conclusion: Lessons for the Dialogue between Theory and Data.” In Research Design in Political Science: How to Practice What They Preach, eds. Thomas Gschwend and Frank Schimmelfennig, Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan. Pp. 216-225. PDF
    • Schnapp, Kai-Uwe, Delia Schindler, Thomas Gschwend, and Joachim Behnke. 2006. „Qualitative und Quantitative Zugänge: Eine integrative Perspektive [Qualitative and Quantitative Avenues: An integrative Perspective].“ In Methoden der Politikwissenschaft: Neuere qualitative und quantitative Analyseverfahren [Political Methodology: New Qualitative and Quantitative Methods], eds. Joachim Behnke, Thomas Gschwend, Delia Schindler and Kai-Uwe Schnapp, Baden-Baden: Nomos. Pp. 11-26. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas. 2006. „Ökologische Inferenz [Ecological Inference]. “In Methoden der Politikwissenschaft: Neuere qualitative und quantitative Analyseverfahren [Political Methodology: New Qualitative and Quantitative Methods], eds. Joachim Behnke, Thomas Gschwend, Delia Schindler and Kai-Uwe Schnapp, Baden-Baden: Nomos. Pp. 227-237. PDF
    • Pappi, Franz U., and Thomas Gschwend. 2005. “Partei- und Koalitionspräferenzen der Wähler bei der Bundestagswahl 1998 und 2002 [Party and Coalition Preferences of Voters at the Federal Elections 1998 and 2002].“ In Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2002 [Elections and Voters. Analysis of the German Federal Election 2002], eds. Jürgen W. Falter, Oscar W. Gabriel and Bernhard Weßels, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Pp. 284-305. PDF
    • Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend. 2005. “Mit Rot-Grün ins Schwarze getroffen: Prognosemodell besteht Feuertaufe [Bulls Eye with a Forecasting Model].“ In Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2002 [Elections and Voters. Analysis of the German Federal Election 2002], eds. Jürgen W. Falter, Oscar W. Gabriel and Bernhard Weßels, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Pp. 371-387. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Dirk Leuffen. 2004. “Stuck between a Rock and a Hard Place: Electoral Dilemmas and Turnout in the 2002 French Legislative Elections.” In The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, ed. Michael Lewis-Beck, Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave. Pp. 155 - 177. PDF 
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Franz U. Pappi. 2004. “Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl [Ticket-Splitting and Coalition Voting].“ In Die Bundestagswahl 2002 [German Federal Election 2002], eds. Frank Brettschneider, Jan van Deth and Edeltraud Roller, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Pp. 167-183. PDF
    • Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend. 2003 “Politbarometer und Wahlprognosen: Die Kanzlerfrage [Politbarometer and Forecasting: The Chancellor’s popularity].” In Politbarometer, ed. Andreas Wüst, Opladen: Leske + Budrich. Pp. 109-123. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas. 2003. “Statistical Control.” In Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, eds. Michael Lewis-Beck, Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao. Newbury Park, CA: Sage. P. 1076. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas und Helmut Norpoth. 2001. “’Wenn am nächsten Sonntag ...’: Ein Prognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen. [A multivariate Forecasting Model for Federal Elections].” In Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 1998 [Elections and Voters. Analysis of the Federal Election 1998], eds. Hans-Dieter Klingemann and Max Kaase. Wiesbaden: Westdeutscher Verlag. Pp. 473-499. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Helmut Norpoth. 2000. “Soll und Haben: Die deutsche Wählerschaft rechnet mit den Parteien ab. [A multivariate model explaining voting behavior in Federal Elections].” In 50 Jahre Empirische Wahlforschung in Deutschland. Entwicklung, Befunde, Perspektiven, Daten. [50 Years of Empirical Electoral Research in Germany], eds. Markus Klein, Wolfgang Jagodzinski, Ekkehard Mochmann and Dieter Ohr. Wiesbaden: Westdeutscher Verlag. Pp. 389-409. PDF

    Others

    • Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend. 2014. "A Near Miss for Chancellor Model"" European Union Studies Association: EU Political Economy Bulletin - Issue 17, winter 2014. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas.2009. "Sind Umfragen das Allheilmittel zur Begleitung politischer Kampagnen? [Are Surveys a panacea for monitoring political campaigns?" Zeitschrift für Politikberatung. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas and Helmut Norpoth. 2009. “Auf die Kanzlerin kommt es an“ Financial Times Deutschland, 20 July 2009. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas and Helmut Norpoth. 2005. “Schröder lebt [Schröder alive].“ Financial Times Deutschland, 3 June 2005. P. 30. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas. 2003. “Iterative EI-Schätzungen und das interne Konsistenzproblem [Iterative EI-Estimation and the Internal Consistency Problem].” Wirtschaft und Statistik 3: 262-267. PDF
    • Broscheid, Andreas, and Thomas Gschwend. 2003. “Augäpfel, Murmeltiere und Bayes: Zur Auswertung stochastischer Daten aus Vollerhebungen [Eyeballing, Groundhogs and Bayes: On the Analysis of Apparent Populations].“ MPIfG Working Paper 03/7. PDF
    • Gschwend, Thomas and Helmut Norpoth. 2003. “Knapp aber vorhersehbar: Schröders Wahlsieg [Close but predictable: Schröders’ Victory].“ FORUM (Forschung Universität Mannheim), ed. University of Mannheim. Mannheim. Pp. 10 - 13.
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Helmut Norpoth. 2002. “Die beste Wahlprognose. Warum eine Methode erfolgreicher war als alle anderen [The best Forecast. Why one Method was more successful than all the others].“ Financial Times Deutschland, 24 September 2002. P. 16.
    • Gschwend, Thomas, and Otto H. Kegel. 1998. “On the group of weak automorphisms of a family of equivalence relations.” In Algebra and Operator Theory, Proceedings of the Colloquium in Tashkent 1997, eds. Yusupdjan Khakimdjanov, Michael Goze and Shavkat A. Ayupov. Dordrecht, NL: Kluwer. Pp. 237-248. PDF
    • Glückher, Heiko, Thomas Gschwend, Thomas Jechle and Irene Nitzl. 1995. Das Referat. Ein Leitfaden für Studierende [Textbook for Undergraduates about how to do in-class presentations]. Freiburg: University of Freiburg.
    • Gschwend, Thomas. 1994. "Steigbügelhalter des Faschismus. Die 'Junge Freiheit' - Wochenzeitung der deutschen 'Neuen Rechten' [Stirrup of Fascism. The “Junge Freiheit’ - Weekly Newspaper of the German ‘New Right’].” AUFBAU, Vol.LX, No.7, 1 April 1994, New York. P. 20.

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